Melting of El Ruiz and Santa Isabel glaciers is hastening
UN/DICYT For the year 2030 the snowcapped Nevado del Ruiz mountain top could be completely extinguished. The situation of the Santa Isabel glacier is even more critical and will cease to exist in eight or ten years.
Given the current situation and the speedy climatic change, students and professors of UNal Manizales and Medellín carried out a research project in which they considered possible melting of these glaciers and therefore determine the floodable areas of the El Rosario area in Manizales.
The results were merged into hydrological and hydraulic modelling and a glacierologic analysis to determine the feasibility of a lahar (water and sediment flow which moves from volcano hillsides) along the Chinchiná River basin and try to determine which areas could become flooded.
Authorities have considered expanding the city of area of Manizales in the Rosario area because it is located just 20 kms. (12.4 miles) from the city, but due to the closeness of the Chinchiná River (where the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz avalanche passed) it wouldn’t be feasible to urbanely expand the city.
For this study UNal entered in an alliance with the Regional Autonomous Corporation of Caldas (CORPOICA for its Spanish acronym) in line with the risk management program already in place. They prepared eruption and water flooding scenarios due to ice melting.
”They formulated hypothesis on flow formation with high amounts of sediments and used models to make them run through river basins in case of an eruption or strong rainfall,” said UNal-Medellín Professor Jaime Ignacio Vélez Upegui
About the glaciers, Velez said, “There are pessimistic hypothesis which say that in eight years the glaciers will be gone. It is clear that climatic change is upon us and that tropical glaciers will disappear, we don’t have any doubts on that. We are expecting this on the long term and this is a consequence of carbon dioxide emissions which have sped up things which nature does more calmly”.
The results of the study indicate that when glaciers are no longer in existence the probabilities of a lahar during a volcanic eruption are not going to be so high; the threat diminishes and floods will be minimal, if any. What follows is having special care with continued rains, because on the long term they can produce severe flooding along the basin of the Chinchiná River.